By Robert Murtagh, Director, Ireland, Unions21 | 5 min
The Irish economy is uniquely reliant on global trade and is therefore particularly exposed to exogenous shocks through so-called ‘slowbalisation’. This has been the topic of significant public debate in Ireland as a response to Donald Trump’s re-election to the White House and his much touted tariffs causing concern for many, particularly the impact on jobs.
Despite this understandable focus on globalisation, it is not the only ‘megatrend’ affecting the Irish labour market. As set out in the Changing World of Work report, the labour market will also be affected by the other megatrends, namely: decarbonisation, digitalisation (technology including automation and AI) and demographics.
There can be no doubt that the Irish economy is navigating a period of profound change.
While the labour market has shown incredible dynamism in recent years, our research reveals a complex picture for the Irish trade union movement, filled with both unique challenges and significant opportunities.
Our new report, produced with NERI, dives into these four global megatrends and what they mean specifically for Ireland.
1. The economy is in transition and as a movement we’re at a crossroad
Ireland is a hub for professional, scientific and technical services, which are major growth areas. Yet, sectors with traditionally strong union roots, like manufacturing, are seeing their share of employment shrink. At the same time, we have one of the highest dependencies on exports in the developed world, with over half of all Irish jobs supported by international trade. As ‘slowbalisation’ reshapes global supply chains, how do we protect members in crucial export-led sectors like manufacturing, agri-food and ICT?
2. There is a demographic time bomb waiting for us
While Ireland has more favourable demographics than much of Europe, one sector faces a crisis. An astonishing 63.4% of the workforce in Irish agriculture is now over 50. This is a demographic time bomb. However, as an area with low rates of unionisation, the impact on the trade union movement will be minimal. The impact of demographic changes in Ireland are likely to be felt more in the public sector, where there is likely to be increased demand in health, social services and education due to population growth. In areas like education, increased labour demand may be tempered by the rise of technology like AI.
3. The Green Transition: A risk and an opportunity
The move to a green economy presents a specific challenge and opportunity for Irish unions. Our research shows that just under a third of workers in high-emission ‘brown’ sectors are union members, compared to 24% in other sectors. As Ireland, like other countries, increases policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions, ‘brown’ jobs are likely to change or be replaced. As trade unions currently have a powerful presence, changes to or disappearing brown jobs pose a significant risk; unless there is increasing unionisation elsewhere, there will be a secular drag on trade union membership. The key question is how are unions seeking to grow collective bargaining coverage and membership rates in the ‘green economy’ and other areas to make up for an area in decline? The positive for trade unions is that due to relatively high unionisation rates, the trade union movement is in a strong position to influence the change in job roles, advocating for a fair and just transition for workers.
This question comes back to a fundamental issue for unions: are we willing to accept changes to traditional job roles as a result of megatrends and focus resources on influencing what is within our sphere of control or are we simply reactive, campaigning to keep traditional job roles where there is little prospect of long-term success?
4. Is the AI divide an advantage for unions?
Artificial Intelligence is here, and it's changing the workplace. Our findings reveal a significant AI divide in Ireland: a quarter of non-union workers are in jobs at high risk from AI, compared to just 18.1% of trade unionists. Health is a good example where there are high rates of unionisation, increasing labour demand due to population growth and low risk from AI. This union advantage gives us a crucial window to bargain proactively, shaping how AI is used to complement, not replace, our members' skills and expertise. In this sense, the issue of AI is similar to the decarbonisation challenge: can we use our relative strength to influence how AI can be used to augment and support jobs, rather than just replacing?
These trends aren't for the future, they are shaping the working lives of members right now. The economy of the future presents both challenges and opportunities, but our movement's success will depend on our ability to adapt and innovate.
What are you seeing on the ground in your sector?
How can we work together to organise the growth areas of our economy?
What should our key bargaining demands be around AI and the Just Transition?
To surmise, the labour market in Ireland is changing, influenced by megatrends that unions have little ability to control. The most salient point for unions is to recognise what is within our sphere of control and influence and therefore consider how we exert the limited resources we have to increase collective bargaining coverage, grow membership, build the power of our movement and create a more equal society. In turn, mitigating against the perception of unions as relics of a labour market of old and only relevant in the public sector.
