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Britain’s trade union leaders do not believe the economic climate will improve until 2010 – and many of them fear there will be no recovery until late next year, says a survey to be published tomorrow (Wednesday) at the annual conference of Unions 21.
The findings of the survey commissioned by Unions 21 show that trade union general secretaries are far more pessimistic about the length and depth of the recession than government ministers, who maintain the economy will start to improve from mid-2009.
Carried out by Electoral Reform Services in February/March, the survey reveals that nearly half (45%) of union leaders do not expect the economy to improve until 2010; and nearly a third (31%) say it will not improve until the second or third quarter of 2010. Only 12% anticipate recovery to begin this year – and a large majority (77%) believe this recession is more severe than any in the recent past.
Sixty-nine unions, both TUC-affiliated and non-affiliated, gave their views to ERS, representing around 4.5 million workers in the public and private sectors. The findings will be presented at the Unions 21 conference to be held at TUC Congress House and attended by Treasury Chief Secretary Yvette Cooper and Employment Relations Minister Pat McFaddam.
Opinion over government’s handling of the economic situation is divided – one third of general secretaries think it is poor, one third rate it as neither good nor poor, and one third think it is good. However, the strongest criticism comes from the smallest unions, with larger unions and TUC affiliates more likely to consider that the government is doing a good job.
Overall, the top priority for union leaders is to protect their members’ terms and condition of employment (cited by eight in ten). But their answers also reveal that at present the recession is having a very different impact on the public and private sectors:
private sector union leaders are much more likely (45%) to have members facing redundancy than the public sector (5%)
eight in ten union leaders in the private sector are working with employers to prevent job losses, compared to 35% in the public sector
50% of private sector union leaders are providing support to those made redundant, compared to 15% in the public sector
70% of public sector union leaders say the recession has had little or no impact on pay offers to their members, compared to 48% of private sector unions.
Since the recession began, a third of all unions (35%) said their members had been asked to accept lower pay rises; a similar proportion (30%) say their members are facing redundancy; one in five have been asked to accept changes to terms and conditions; and 7% have been asked to accept pay cuts.
Commenting, Sue Ferns, chair of Unions 21, said: ”These findings highlight the impact of the global credit crunch on workers in the UK. Given the cost of current support measures for the public purse, the concern must be that the situation will worsen when a second wave of cuts hits the public sector. While the survey does not signal a clear view that a different government would do any better, we will be listening with interest to what ministers have to say at our conference tomorrow.”
NOTES TO EDITORS
This survey was conducted by the Research Division of Electoral Reform Services. The results are based on postal and online responses of 69 trade union general secretaries. All 131 national trades unions listed by the certification officer as of 31 March 2008 were invited to participate in the survey; federations were excluded. Those who responded were representative of all independent trade unions in terms of size and TUC affiliation.
Fieldwork was conducted between 4 February and 3 March 2009. Copies of the full report are available at the conference, to be held at TUC Congress House, Great Russell Street, London WC1B 3LS or from Sue Ferns at sue.ferns@prospect.org.uk
Unions 21 is a coalition of trade unionists and other supporters that exists to debate key issues affecting trade unions and the world of work. It holds regular conferences and seminars designed to build strong, forward-thinking and responsive trade unions at a time of change.
